Batswana should brace themselves for a sharp increase in inflation this year as the 2026 global energy shock threatens to push up commodity prices and intensify pressure on household budgets.
The World Bank, in its latest report titled Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa Gains Momentum Despite Global Uncertainty warns that Botswana is expected to experience an inflation increase of more than three percentage points in 2026. The Bank places Botswana among six countries in the region facing the steepest price pressures.
The other countries are Chad, Mauritania, Mozambique, Rwanda and Sierra Leone. The warning comes amid renewed global commodity price pressures driven by geopolitical tensions and disruptions in international energy markets, threatening to reverse some of the progress made in containing inflation across the continent. The Botswana Regulatory Authority (BERA) recently announced major fuel price increases as follows; Unleaded Petrol 95 (ULP 95): Increased by 154 thebe to P19.75 per litre.
According to the World Bank, nearly 60 percent of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, representing 27 of the 47 countries, are projected to experience an acceleration in consumer price inflation in 2026 compared with the previous year.
According to the World Bank, nearly 60 percent of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, representing 27 of the 47 countries, are projected to experience an acceleration in consumer price inflation in 2026 compared with the previous year.
Among these countries, the median increase in inflation is projected at 1.4 percentage points.
Botswana’s inclusion among countries facing increases exceeding three percentage points raises concerns about the potential impact on consumers already grappling with high living costs and a fragile economic recovery.
Early this year, the Bank notes that, in response to the 2026 global energy shock, Botswana introduced measures targeting energy conservation and consumer support.
Under energy conservation, the government has resorted to rationing measures, including reducing travel by public officials, in an effort to contain fuel consumption. On the consumer support front, Botswana has suspended the fuel levy, security of supply levy and road levy to cushion consumers against escalating fuel costs.
However, the World Bank’s projections suggest that the measures may not be enough to shield the economy from broader inflationary pressures arising from higher international commodity prices. The report indicates that mineral- and metal-exporting economies are particularly vulnerable, with median inflation projected to rise from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 6.7 percent in 2026.
Nevertheless, the World Bank expects inflation among mineral- and metal-exporting economies to moderate to an average of 5.0 percent in 2027–28 as geopolitical tensions gradually recede and commodity markets stabilise.
The increase would bring inflation in these economies back to levels last experienced in 2024, suggesting that the relatively low inflation recorded in 2025 may have been temporary.
Nevertheless, the World Bank expects inflation among mineral- and metal-exporting economies to moderate to an average of 5.0 percent in 2027–28 as geopolitical tensions gradually recede and commodity markets stabilise. Across the wider region, the inflation outlook is more encouraging for countries that experienced double-digit inflation in 2025. Of the 20 countries expected to record declining inflation in 2026, roughly half had double-digit inflation last year.
Angola, Burundi, Ghana, Nigeria, Zambia and Zimbabwe are expected to register the largest declines, exceeding five percentage points, supported by easing exchange-rate shocks, tighter monetary policies and improving macroeconomic conditions.
