Botswana’s diamond production declined by a fifth in the third quarter of 2026, highlighting the operational and market pressures confronting the country’s most important export industry. This is despite De Beers recording higher year-to-date output.
In its latest report, De Beers produced 4.8 million carats in Botswana during the quarter, down 20 percent from 6.03 million carats in the same period last year and 12 percent from the second quarter. The company attributed the decline primarily to planned maintenance at Orapa. Across its global operations, production fell 11 percent to 6.8 million carats.
However, Botswana’s cumulative production for the nine months to September reached 15.13 million carats, 14 percent above the 13.25 million carats recorded in the corresponding period of 2025. The increase reflects a stronger year-to-date performance against a weaker comparative period, rather than uninterrupted recovery.
The outlook also carries near-term risks. De Beers expects planned maintenance at Jwaneng in the fourth quarter to “substantially decrease production levels from Q3 2026 rates”, potentially weighing on output as the year closes.
De Beers’ year-to-date consolidated average realised price fell 37 percent to US$97 per carat, reflecting an 18 percent decline in its average rough diamond price index and a less favourable sales mix than in the previous year.
De Beers said trading conditions showed signs of stability, supported by improved consumer demand in the United States and India. Nevertheless, lab-grown diamonds continued to pressure lower-value natural diamonds. The World Bank identifies weaker natural-diamond demand and competition from synthetic stones as factors reducing export earnings and government revenue, reinforcing the need to diversify economic activity.
The company reported consolidated rough diamond sales revenue of US$731 million from two sales events in the third quarter, compared with US$700 million in the same period of 2025. Sales volumes increased to 8.7 million carats on a consolidated basis from 4.6 million carats. The higher revenue despite lower realised prices underscores the importance of sales volumes and product mix, but does not establish a sustained recovery in diamond values.
De Beers said trading conditions showed signs of stability, supported by improved consumer demand in the United States and India. Nevertheless, lab-grown diamonds continued to pressure lower-value natural diamonds. The World Bank identifies weaker natural-diamond demand and competition from synthetic stones as factors reducing export earnings and government revenue, reinforcing the need to diversify economic activity.
De Beers has revised its 2026 production guidance to 25–28 million carats, partly reflecting its assumption of full ownership of Canada’s Gahcho Kué mine. Unit cost guidance has also been reduced to approximately US$70 per carat.
With Jwaneng maintenance approaching and global demand still uneven, output alone may offer an incomplete measure of the sector’s recovery.
