Botswana’s fiscal stability could be at risk if lessons from the failed Development Manager model are not urgently acted upon, a new government report warns.

The model, introduced in 2023 to fast-track projects under the Transitional National Development Plan, has seen its projected cost skyrocket from P13 billion to P56 billion, with both the Ministry of Finance and the National Planning Commission estimating that related overruns could swallow up to 60% of the 12th National Development Plan budget.

The Task Team review concludes that the model’s risk pricing mechanisms left government far more exposed than anticipated, undermining the supposed transfer of risk to private contractors. It also notes that the fiscal burden comes at a time when Botswana’s economy is already under strain from sluggish diamond sales and a slow post-pandemic recovery.

The report recommends independent financial audits, ministerial sign-off for cost escalations and the introduction of a real-time digital project monitoring system to prevent a repeat of such overruns. Without these reforms, it warns, the combination of runaway infrastructure costs and weak oversight could divert resources from essential public services and long-term development goals, putting the country’s economic health in jeopardy.