After several punishing years for the diamond industry, De Beers believes the worst of the downturn may be passing, though it warns that recovery is likely to be gradual rather than swift.
The company says rough-diamond trading conditions remain constrained by economic uncertainty and the growing presence of synthetic diamonds, which have reshaped parts of the market. Yet executives argue that a combination of disciplined supply management, increased marketing expenditure, potential progress on U.S.-India tariff negotiations and changing retail dynamics for lab-grown stones could improve conditions over the medium term.
“There are some early positive signals emerging from the actions we are taking,” said Paul Rowley, De Beers’ Executive Vice-President for Diamond Trading, during a presentation of the group’s interim financial results. He cautioned, however, that any improvement is being measured against a weak starting point after several difficult years.
Despite the industry’s troubles, De Beers remains bullish on the long-term prospects for natural diamonds. The company points to sustained consumer appeal in key markets and favourable supply dynamics as reasons for confidence.
One area where De Beers believes its strategy is beginning to bear fruit is marketing. The group has significantly increased spending to promote natural diamonds, undertaking what Rowley described as its largest category-marketing investment in a decade. The campaign forms part of a broader effort to reinforce the distinction between natural and synthetic stones in the minds of consumers.
The company’s outlook is also shaped by the inherently long-term nature of the industry. Unlike many sectors that respond to quarterly cycles, diamond mining requires investment decisions measured in years, if not decades. Rowley cited continued infrastructure development at the Venetia mine in South Africa and De Beers’ ongoing interest in Angola as evidence of the company’s commitment to the sector’s future.
Trade policy is another source of cautious optimism. Because India dominates global diamond cutting and polishing, tariff arrangements involving the country have implications for the entire supply chain.
Rowley said a resolution of U.S.-India tariff issues would provide greater certainty for the sector. “The majority of diamonds are manufactured in India,” he noted. “It is important for us from a production perspective and a total run of mine that India also has zero tariff.” De Beers remains confident that natural diamonds will eventually benefit from tariff-free access.
The company’s outlook is also shaped by the inherently long-term nature of the industry. Unlike many sectors that respond to quarterly cycles, diamond mining requires investment decisions measured in years, if not decades. Rowley cited continued infrastructure development at the Venetia mine in South Africa and De Beers’ ongoing interest in Angola as evidence of the company’s commitment to the sector’s future.
Those investments, he argued, reflect confidence not only in De Beers’ prospects but also in the broader trajectory of the diamond business.
Recovery, however, will require more than the efforts of miners alone. Rowley stressed the importance of cooperation across the value chain, from producers and manufacturers to retailers and marketers.
“Everyone has a part to play in this recovery,” he said, arguing that the industry’s interconnected nature means solutions must be shared.
Optimism remains tempered. The first half of the year was marked by difficult decisions and weak trading conditions. Yet De Beers believes the foundations for a recovery are being laid. Stability in 2026, Rowley suggested, could pave the way for stronger momentum in 2027
