Member of Parliament for Kanye East, Prince Mosanana recently posed a question to the Minister of Environment and Tourism, Wynter Mmolotsi, regarding the accuracy of the Department of Meteorological Services’ forecasts. Mosanana highlighted concerns from farmers who had relied on the department’s prediction of ample rainfall from November 2024, which ultimately did not materialize as expected, causing significant inconvenience.
In response, Minister Mmolotsi defended the department’s forecast accuracy, stating that the seasonal outlook for 2024/25 was issued in September 2024. The forecast projected a slow start to the rainy season, with largely normal to below-normal precipitation expected between October and December 2024, followed by largely normal to above-normal rainfall from November 2024 to the season’s end. The department also predicted a weak La Niña throughout the forecast period and above-normal temperatures across the country.
Mmolotsi emphasized that the forecast had no inaccuracies, noting that October 2024 experienced below-normal rainfall and high temperatures, as predicted. Rainfall began in November 2024 but was mostly confined to the Southern, South-East, North-East, and Bobirwa districts. Notable rainfall figures included Borolong Primary School near Francistown, which recorded 98.0mm, Batlokwa National Primary School in Tlokweng with 94.0mm, Motopi Primary School at 85.5mm, and Tshesebe Primary School at 81.0mm. However, most of the country experienced below-average rainfall during October and November 2024.
He further explained that an extended dry spell and heat waves occurred from late November into early December 2024. However, rainfall became abundant thereafter, with some eastern parts of the country experiencing flooding. The minister assured that normal to above-normal rainfall is still expected to continue until the end of the season.
Mmolotsi clarified that seasonal forecasts provide broad-scale predictions and are not meant to determine specific local variations or precise day-to-day weather patterns. He urged users to consult the Department of Meteorological Services for detailed interpretations and additional guidance. He also acknowledged that scientific limitations still prevent experts from accurately predicting the exact onset and cessation of rainfall for specific locations and periods.
To mitigate future inconveniences caused by forecast variations, Mmolotsi highlighted the ministry’s commitment to continuous training of meteorological experts and the adoption of the latest technologies and equipment.
