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The death of mega-projects by spreadsheet

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The Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) government has delivered a blunt verdict on one of the country’s most ambitious infrastructure experiments: it costs too much. After a comprehensive review of the Development Manager (DM) model, authorities have suspended 132 projects before construction began, citing unacceptable cost differentials.

The DM model, introduced in 2023 under the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) government, was meant to accelerate delivery and overcome chronic project delays. In theory, it pooled expertise and streamlined coordination. In practice, it produced eye-watering overruns. “Under the DM approach, the construction of new primary schools was approximately 34 percent more expensive,” Finance Minister Ndaba Gaolathe said. “A principal hospital project recorded a cost variance of over 56 percent, amounting to more than P630 million.”

Botswana’s history of underperforming mega-projects made the decision unavoidable. Rather than defend past choices, the government chose to stop, reassess and redesign. Strategic projects will now undergo rigorous analysis under the Botswana Economic Transformation Programme, with clear cost estimates, risk allocation and accountability.

Road projects were also pricier, averaging 11 percent more than conventional methods. Of the 148 projects reviewed, only 16 were sufficiently advanced to proceed. The rest were halted at the conceptual stage, a rare admission that sunk costs had not yet sunk far enough to justify continuation.

The review exposed deeper flaws. Gaolathe cited “ad hoc decision-making, inadequate cost-benefit analysis, weak project selection and appraisal processes, poor adherence to established control frameworks, and limited institutional capacity.”

Botswana’s history of underperforming mega-projects made the decision unavoidable. Rather than defend past choices, the government chose to stop, reassess and redesign. Strategic projects will now undergo rigorous analysis under the Botswana Economic Transformation Programme, with clear cost estimates, risk allocation and accountability.

The shift also reflects a broader fiscal reality. With buffers depleted and revenues under pressure, there is little appetite for prestige projects that deliver political headlines but weak returns. Even Public-Private Partnerships are being scrutinised. “While PPPs do not require upfront capital outlays by the Government, they create binding long-term fiscal commitments,” Gaolathe warned.

The message is unmistakable: scale alone no longer justifies expense. Projects must be executed “at the right cost, and in full compliance with the Public Finance Management legal framework.”

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