For decades Botswana has searched for an economic future beyond diamonds. Tourism, long celebrated for showcasing the country’s wildlife and wilderness, is frequently cited as one of the most promising alternatives. Yet a new study suggests that Botswana has still not converted that promise into its full economic value.
Research by the Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis (BIDPA) finds that tourism has been a substantial contributor to the economy, accounting on average for 10.3% of GDP, 8.5% of exports and 7.9% of employment between 1997 and 2023. More importantly, the study concludes that tourism is not merely a source of foreign exchange; it is a driver of growth. A 1% increase in tourist arrivals is associated with a 0.56% increase in real GDP per capita over the long run.
That finding strengthens the case for treating tourism as an economic strategy rather than a conservation success story. Yet Botswana continues to underperform relative to its potential.
The study identifies familiar constraints: inadequate investment, weak infrastructure, inconsistent service quality, limited diversification of tourism products and persistent leakages that prevent more spending from remaining within the local economy.
The study identifies familiar constraints: inadequate investment, weak infrastructure, inconsistent service quality, limited diversification of tourism products and persistent leakages that prevent more spending from remaining within the local economy.
While Botswana enjoys a strong comparative advantage in nature-based tourism, competitors have proved more adept at monetising theirs.
Seychelles offers an instructive comparison. According to the study, sustained investment has enabled the island nation to extract far greater economic value from tourism than Botswana has managed. The implication is uncomfortable but clear: possessing world-class attractions is not enough. Success depends on the policies, infrastructure and investment that surround them.
The prescription is hardly revolutionary. The study calls for stronger citizen participation, reduced leakages, greater private investment and continued environmental stewardship. What has been lacking is not diagnosis but execution.
Botswana does not suffer from a shortage of natural assets or international recognition. It suffers from a shortage of investment and integration. The country has built a global tourism brand. The challenge now is turning that reputation into broader economic prosperity.
There are signs that policymakers are beginning to recognise the urgency. Tourism occupies a central place in Botswana’s Economic Transformation Programme, which seeks to broaden the country’s economic base and reduce reliance on diamond revenues. The government aims to attract 2.7m visitors annually by 2033 while expanding tourism products, improving infrastructure and increasing citizen involvement.
The stakes are high. Tourism already contributes materially to output and employment, and stronger performance would ripple through transport, food production, accommodation and digital services.
It could generate jobs in rural areas where opportunities are often scarce and help create a more diversified economy.
Botswana does not suffer from a shortage of natural assets or international recognition. It suffers from a shortage of investment and integration. The country has built a global tourism brand. The challenge now is turning that reputation into broader economic prosperity.
BIDPA disclaimer: Johane Motsatsi was a Research Fellow in the Macroeconomics and Development Unit of the Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis. He passed away prior to the publishing of this paper. However, the paper was completed prior to his passing.
